The last couple of years, I have found myself getting more and more intrigued with the good old world of the box office, to the point that I made daft spreadsheets of the top 100 worldwide releases. I would have a fun game of guessing the worldwide gross for the big releases and see how close I got. Last year I did pretty well, so why not make a little post about it for this year?

We will be going in current release date order for added giggles, so settle in and see if you agree, or if you think I am so off the mark that it’s hysterical.

FEBRUARY

“Wuthering Heights” – $175,000,000

I have nothing positive to say about this film other than it is guaranteed to look gorgeous. Beyond that, it is all up in the air for how it will actually play for audiences. I don’t believe it will have legs, even with the competition the rest of the month being quite sparse. This was always going to be a front-loaded film, and even more so a Friday-Saturday film, with the interest immediately dropping like a stone when it reaches midweek. $175m is the cautious estimate. But, with word of mouth, it could break $225m. But for now, let’s play it safe.

Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die – $50,000,000

Maybe a touch low, but I just haven’t seen it marketed enough; however, I wouldn’t be surprised if this did decently in the long run. Its opening weekend will be hit hard by “Wuthering Heights”, but that will die a death from Monday onwards, so this is one that has the chance to be a solid “catch-up” film for audiences. $50m could still be a stretch, yet I am hopeful enough for it as it looks like a ton of fun.

Scream 7 – $150,000,000 – $175,000,000

Hard one to judge; a big question will be: will people truly care that Sidney is back and that all the young stars the franchise tried to build are gone (for some very stupid, bloody reasons)? $125m is the safe bet, but like last year people were underplaying how much people wanted to go back to the cinema, so another hopeful punt. Still, I am fully expecting this to fall flat, as I can’t see a film in which the old killers returning in whatever form Scream likes to throw at us is as appealing as Paramount desperately hopes.

Pegasus 3 – $650,000,000

This is the big Spring Festival release in China in March, so we should expect it to be pretty good at the box office. Pegasus 2 was in the $400m range, and with a big pre-interest for this third release (for those who look at Chinese box office reports, this was seen on a monster scale with Zootopia 2 and clued a lot of people in that it would be truly massive there). That interest, btw, is over double that of any of the other Spring Festival releases. The spring festival will not make as much box office-wise this year as it did last year, because, well, there is nothing on the level of Ne Zha 2, and even in Hollywood films, it won’t be until Avengers that something even challenges what happened with that phenomenon.

MARCH

The Bride! – $100,000,000

This just looks like a good bit of fun, and that has taken over my usual scepticism. Bring me madness. In theory, this will most likely do a little less than $70m. However, that hopefulness in my heart just wants it to shine, and in a fairly quiet March, it could just keep sneaking the audiences in and the box office up. It could also gain that post-Oscar win boost if/when Buckley wins. Do not be shocked if this is a bit of a sleeper.

Hoppers – $350,000,000

I don’t think we are going to have another Elio at the box office, but I also don’t think we are going to get something fantastic either. So it is getting plunked fairly in the middle, and although it will take a few weeks to do well, by April, it will get swamped and disappear. So, a nice, safe estimate on this one.

Project Hail Mary – $300,000,000

Will this do the numbers everyone desperately wants? I am not sure, I have gone slightly less than what I have seen. I don’t think it will flop, but I don’t see it making the money people think it will. I believe it will be strong, but it won’t reach the heights we all want.

APRIL

Super Mario Galaxy Movie          $1,500,000,000                

Last time out, people truly under-estimated what Super Mario Bros could do, and it smashed it. This time, they have the world built, and with the inclusion of characters like Yoshi, we are setting up for another monster at the box office. I am going for a little more than 2023 as it will own the Easter Break and can confidently predict it will be the first $1,000,000,000 film of the year. Will it do Zootopia 2 numbers? Very doubtful, as it would need China’s help, and Mario doesn’t have much nostalgic presence there, given how much the first film slumped. It’s unlikely that has changed in the three years since.

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy            $75,000,000

If reports are to be believed, this has struggled at test screenings, and the general vibe hasn’t been very positive. There is always hope, of course, considering Evil Dead Rise was decent without being overly amazing. The added worry that only a teaser trailer has been released makes you wonder whether those reports are true and whether the film is still deep into editing to fix things. It is one of the few horror/adult films out in April, so there is the hope it crosses 9 figures, but at this point, it is caution, caution, caution with predicting.

Michael – $1,100,000,000

If this is even decent, this will be a big one. The only worry is that there will be far too much story squished into its runtime. Now, if it were stretched into a multi-part film series, I think we could see something bigger. But given how tightly the family holds control of the story, this could easily veer into a Bohemian Rhapsody-esque film. Which is fine, but the opportunity to make it so much more is high. With that said, Michael could easily do $700,000,000 – $1,500,000,000. It has such a weird possibility at the box office that it becomes an utter headache to predict. I think worldwide audiences will show up in droves for this, so I have gone slightly above $1 billion. Could easily be wrong on either side though!.

MAY

The Devil Wears Prada 2 – $650,000,000

Never underestimate the power of a film like this. We could be looking at something that will be bulletproof, with multiple return visits from groups of people. If daft little films like Freaky Friday can reach $150m, then something so ingrained across multiple generations like The Devil Wears Prada is going to go big. The views for the teaser trailer show there is a huge amount of interest, and if the film is in any way good, then that $650m would look like the low-end estimate.

The Mandalorian and Grogu – $250,000,000

Even I think this is a high guess, as there is no doubt we are 3 years too late on the craze of these characters for it to be a film. Very, very front-end, if this does get to what I have guessed, I would honestly be surprised. Disney have squandered Star Wars films and TV-wise, so in my eyes, anything over $250,000,000 has to be seen as a major win for this one.

JUNE

Now we get into the utter stupidity that is the summer, and something I had major gripes about last year. We have virtually a massive release a week in June and July, and then the biggest films in August are Insidious and bloody Paw Patrol. Just stretching these out so each film gets at least 2 weeks each is the better decision, but I am assuming studios believe that everyone is on holiday in August and thus not going to the cinema. Fools. We are long past the “dead” months of January and September, with previous years showing that if you release a good film in those months, it will shockingly still perform well, as mysteriously, people still go to the damn cinema in these months. Anyway, rant over, let’s get into the silliness.

Masters of the Universe               $250,000,000

I dunno, I just didn’t see anything that made me really think this will hit multiple generations of audiences, which, if we are honest, this really needs to do to cross over $300m. I see it much more likely to strike around the box office of Dungeons and Dragons this time out. Would love to be wrong on this one, as we all need a bit of silliness like this.

Disclosure Day – $300,000,000

Spielberg and science fiction. A match made in heaven, and yet, in such a packed schedule, I do not see it striking out as much as it needs to. I fear this will be one of the victims of the congestion and THE film that should have taken the August/September release slot so that it could truly thrive once audiences got bored with Spider-Man. Alas, we are here, and maybe I am wrong and every big release in those 9 weeks will make over $400m. I just very much doubt it.

Scary Movie 6 – $175,000,000

Babes, just throw this one out in September/October like a sensible person. Why this is coming out in June and not simply kicking off the horror season with some spoof horror comedy is beyond me. I don’t get it, and much like Disclosure Day, I fear its true box office possibilities are going to be greatly hindered because of its release date.

Toy Story 5 – $1,400,000,000

People keep underestimating these releases and if Lilo and Stitch live action (analysts never seemed to understand that Stitch is one of Disney’s main lads nowadays) and Moana 2 (A glorified TV show edited to make into a feature) can hit $1 billion, then Toy Story 5 (which is still so massive with adults and children as toy sellers) will do that with quite a bit of ease. Now, anything beyond $1.5b might be a stretch, but considering the only competition for children is Minions 3, two weeks later and then Moana on the 10th of July, it allows for a lot of box office road to be gained.

Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow – $400,000,000

Anything over $300m has to be seen as a winner on this one, but I think it will just have enough juice from the releases around it to sneak past $400m. Will it get near $500m? That depends entirely on the international audience that didn’t cling to Superman as much as hoped. With Supergirl being less “America” than her cousin, there’s hope it does better than expected. The legs on this will depend on WOM. If strong, it has a bit of an open few weeks due to differences in targeted competition.

JULY

Minions 3 – $900,000,000

There is a slight downturn coming for this franchise, not much of a dramatic fall, but I struggle to see it crossing $1 billion with Toy Story 5 released so close to it. Suppose it had open season as the animated film of the summer, then sure. It would rack up the box office, but it’s sandwiched and will struggle to reach that 10-digit number this time out.

Moana  – $1,000,000,000

Like Lilo and Stitch, people are doubting this one. Easy billion in my opinion. It has enough of a gap to really do business, and again, if that stupid Moana 2 can trip itself to $1 billion, why on Earth couldn’t a live-action remake of the original? If anything, this is the true test of Disney’s live-action strategy, given how recent Moana actually is. Has there been enough of a distance? I think so, and I think people will be shocked by how well it does. Secretly, I have it closer to $1.2b than what is up there. But we will see!

The Odyssey      $1,100,000,000

The big question of the summer: how interested are audiences going to be in Ancient Greek mythology? They came out in droves for a physicist. Nolan has a stacked cast, and the main question for me is this: Should this be one film, or would it have been better served as two? The Odyssey is not a short tale; it is very sprawling, and if it’s too packed with moments, it might hurt itself pacing-wise. Regardless, the people will come out for it, so I am going with the top end of what it might do. Cinema is rebuilding, and this year is proof of that. Plus, you know IMAX tickets aren’t cheap.

Spider-Man Brand New Day –  $1,500,000,000

Am I going over the top with all of these billion predictions? Maybe. But as I said, there is a desert of direness in August, which means all these big films will have good screening options for a couple of months. They will all feast, and with Spider-Man being at the very end of that, it has the most to gain. Perfect spot location from Disney, as it doesn’t have to worry about anything until maybe Clayface in the middle of September. The only question is, will this one do anything like No Way Home and its three Peters? I doubt it a little bit, but you never know. It could be a monster. It certainly has the chance to be the biggest film of the summer, so let’s go for it and say it will be.

AUGUST

Bugger all to look at here, kiddos, let’s move it along.

SEPTEMBER

Clayface – $250,000,000

So will James Gunn’s brace no universe strike the right chords, or are we in for a world of Sony MCU villains that are entirely forgettable? I think we are in for a middle of the road success. Yet, given how desperately dire August is, audiences may make this a very front-heavy success, as they will be starving for something decent to get their teeth into. So low expectations here, but there is a tonne of home that $350m+ isn’t an insane suggestion.

Resident Evil – $150,000,000

We are edging closer to my favourite time of the year, and like last year, it looks like horror will not be making as much of a presence in the latter weeks of October as it should. Another trend I do not understand, but alas, here we are. This prediction could change over time, but for now, I am venturing for the very low end for Resident Evil. It is a series that surely doesn’t have that much juice left in it. Happy to be wrong, but I feel the need to be very conservative on it is high.

OCTOBER

Verity – $250,000,000

It’s going to be a stellar year for Anne Hathaway at the box office if Verity performs well, which, considering the history of these adapted novels, it should do very well. $250 might be towards the top end of its ceiling, but I wouldn’t be so sure that it could be a long-legged hit if it is counter-programmed well enough. Don’t be surprised if this does $100-150m more than I have predicted.

Street Fighter – $150,000,000

A lot is riding on this being a success; if not, then well, I don’t expect we will see another Street Fighter attempt ever again. The budget for this isn’t going to be low, so I don’t think it is going to hit the mark it needs to. In a packed year for films, we are going to get one or two that underperform (I hate the word flop). I fear this is going to be one of them. Though who knows, it is one of those that is truly up in the air.

NOVEMBER

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping – $300,000,000

We are just going to drag these out, aren’t we? The last one had decent box-office success, but nothing amazing. I figure it will be something similar, with a bit more depreciation until they have wrung the life out of the franchise. Not really much to add on this one. It’s a film that will do enough, and nothing more. One of those December films (get ready for that nonsense) should have thrown themselves into this month and reaped the rewards for a few weeks before they get nothing.

Focker-in-Law – $200,000,000

Shocked this is even a thing, but these always do decent money. The main question will be whether Arianna’s presence will help boost it at all, given that this was a long-dormant franchise. Better to go middle of the road for something like this, I can’t see it touching towards $400m, and I can’t see it being a disaster, so 200-275 seems about right.

DECEMBER

Jumanji 3 – $750,000,000

Depreciation baby. I don’t know why we need another Jumanji film with these characters, but slap me silly, we got one. This will do well for the opening week before clinging to young kids for its life, as what is coming is nothing short of disastrous for any other films coming out in those final two weeks of the year. This should be the last of the franchise; if not, then they need to move away from December.

Dune: Part Three – $800,000,000

Oh boy, WB really aren’t blinking and keeping that date, which feels like madness, but Zootopia 2 and Avatar have been very happy playmates. Dune: Part Three should do a touch more than what Part Three did, but of course, it has the possibilities of heading towards that $1 billion. It has all the chances, depending on January releases, which are currently in its favour. If Villeneuve and co-writer Jon Spaihts can bring the trilogy home, I wouldn’t be surprised about it hitting that billion, but $900,000,000 seems the more likely at this point.

Avengers: Doomsday – $1,900,000,000

This could really go any way, couldn’t it? It’s hitting $1 billion, that we know, but how deep towards $2 billion does it go? Hell, does it even surpass it? I expect it too, if it’s decent. It’s fantastic, then $2.2b should be the goal. Yet, there have to be serious doubts about this film and if there is still an appetite for such a convoluted concept of a film that has barely had the hint of a build to it. What made the previous Avengers films work is that they had a story. Here, it seems like we are starting big, huge, humongous with the story, which will then spread the seeds for the next decade of the MCU. It’s bold, borderline mad, but here we are, twiddling our thumbs. I have no doubt this will get lapped up while being borderline average. So for now, I am going under $2 billion. Will most likely be wrong though.

Well, that’s it. How far off am I? Am I just a little optimistic bunny or an idiot? Let me know!