I made some guesses for the year recently and thought it would be a laugh to see how the first month of guesses has been going thus far!
“Wuthering Heights” – Prediction $175,000,000 – $225,000,000
I had the safe option of $175m there if it didn’t keep pulling in the crowds, and as of today (Friday 6th March) we are about to cross $200m, so that high-end guess of $225m looks like it will be pretty spot on, if not just a touch under it.
Not a success for the film, but I imagine this will do decently on Digital when it reaches there exclusively.
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die – Prediction $50,000,000
Well damn, I didn’t know the release for this was never going to go fully wide, with it peaking at 1672 screens in its second week. A shame, as it looks like a lot of fun, but with a small domestic release and a practically non-existent international release, well, it was doomed. It will be solid on streaming, though. So there are positives. I can’t see it getting past $9,000,000 at this point unless there are more international release dates planned.
Pegasus 3 – Prediction $650,000,000
Our first Chinese film on the list won the Spring Festival with the greatest of ease and should get close to $600m by Monday. Considering the competition for the next few weeks over there, that $650m target should be reached, with it maybe getting closer to $670m. However, that will depend on how well the March Hollywood releases do (as well as Marty Supreme). I imagine it and a few other Spring festival films have the chance to do decently for the next few weeks.
Scream 7 – Prediction $150,000,000 – $175,000,000
With us already at $110,000,000 and the next big competition (sorry, The Bride!) being Project Hail Mary on 20th March, there are still two more weeks for Scream 7 to pull in a bit of a crowd to cross it over to $150,000,000. People were not deterred at all, and despite it being fairly rubbish, people just want to go watch films… So, it will be alright, $175m alright? Well, that was always the upper stretch, but don’t be shocked.
(Other noticeable February releases)
Blades of the Guardians – $174,000,000
Second placed (so far) with Silent Awakenings for Spring Festival releases, this has been a steady if unspectacular performance thus far. $200m is well within target as March is on the quieter side for the Chinese box office, as we have a glut of Hollywood releases which will not take big numbers out of the domestic films.
Silent Awakenings (Scare Out) – $170,000,000
Silent Awakenings keeps performing steadier than Blades of the Guardians, with its daily decreases being less. So do not be surprised if there is a little race towards the end of their runs between these two. Note that this is getting called Scare Out in North American and UK etc, no idea why.
Boonie Bears: The Hidden Protector – $142,000,000
For those who do not know Boonie Bears is a yearly released franchise in China, with it already beating last years release. It’s nowhere near the 2024 and 2023 release, but that did something like $275,000,000, so that was always going to be a struggle. With the weekend coming up, do not be surprised if it has a strong showing to gain a little on the two mentioned above. $165,000,000 wouldn’t be a crazy guess at its final total.
Looking ahead to March
The Bride! – Prediction $100,000,000
With the very mixed reviews for this one, I imagine it will probably struggle a little to get to that prediction. Though if it has a stronger than expected weekend with audiences, and from what I have seen from reviews, male critics had no time for this, but female ones were a little more glowing about what was on offer. So, possibly expect a little bump from that crowd now that “Wuthering Heights” is slowing down.
$70m was the original guess, but I went bullish and honestly? I still think it will get there; it will depend on the international audiences, though.
Hoppers – Prediction $350,000,000
Until Mario, Hoppers has a pretty clean run of it for competition in the kids’ side of things, as GOAT will drop heavily now. $350m was me being hopeful, but it could really go either way on this one. Audiences could stay away, or they could come out in droves. We will know more by the weekend.
Project Hail Mary – $300,000,000
From some hyperbolic reviews, you would think the second coming of science fiction films has arrived. This had a big old budget and will need to make far more than predicted above to make a profit. Yet, it could do something decent as it has two weeks clear of any real competition, and even then, that competition is Mario. With strong legs and an even stronger word of mouth, do not be surprised to see this soar past that safe prediction. How far? I’m not sure, but I would be shocked if it were a giant hit that crossed $600 million. Let’s be hopeful that it smashes it!
Reminders of Him – $80,000,000
Playing it safe here and going with slightly less than Regretting You, as the Hooververse (something I just learned today… Christ) does decent, but not astoundingly well. So let’s keep our estimations low. Could it hit $100 million? Maybe, but I doubt it.
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come – $50,000,000
Made for pennies (well, $6 million), this will make a tidy profit, much like the first film. Whether waiting 7 years from the original is a strong idea remains to be seen, but the cast is great, so who knows! I can’t see it beating the original, but weirder things have happened, and maybe with a major release horror lull for a few weeks, we could get a little surprise here. Don’t expect anything close to $100 million, though.
Other than some rereleases, not much else of serious note is hitting us in March, so that’s your lot! See you next month where I see how terribly I did!
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