We return with as extensive as we can get predictions of the nominations for the 2021 Academy Awards. This is a year that I have been able to watch a whole lot more than I would have (thanks to the delay I guess?) With that said, lets not beat around the bush, this is a big old list and there will be a short breakdown as to why I have chosen what I did.
Best Picture
Nomadland
Minari
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Ma Raineys Black Bottom
The Father
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
Some have said that 2020/early 2021 was a bit of a flop for movies. It may have been the case for cinemas and blockbusters, but for dramas and thrillers and the like it was a positively booming year. From research carried out the majority of these 10 films have been getting the bulk of the nominations throughout awards seasons and it would be a serious surprise if any of these 10 films drop out. Though the one most likely to would be The Father and in its place I can only assume The News of the World would take its place. Happy to be wrong on this as there are a couple of films on here that I do not necessarily think should be there, but nominations and momentum matter in this game.
Best Director
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
David Fincher (Mank)
Disappointingly Regina King looks set to miss out on a nomination here, the same for Spike Lee and Shaka King as directors like Sorkin and Fincher may get the nod ahead of them. I didn’t rate the direction too much of The Trail of the Chicago 7, so if there was someone to miss out for one of those 3 I would think it would be Sorkin or Fincher. Zhao seems to be the odds on favourite to win, so she is a an automatic given and the build that Minari has been having will lock in Chung with ease.
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Music)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
It should be noted here that I would much rather have Delroy Lindo in lace of Gary Oldman in Mank (and anything in general in place of Mank), I sadly feel the momentum has been gutted from that film and while I hope to be wrong, there is the chance that I won’t. Cross those fingers though. Everyone else kind of sets itself up, like most of the categories here this time out. Listen, we all know who is almost certainly going to win this one, but if I could pick Ahmed would get there ahead of Boseman.
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Best Actress
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Viola Davis (Ma Raineys Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)
Another that seems like a lock in with very little opportunities for a surprise seeing the sheer amount of nominations all 5 have received throughout the past few months. Keep an eye out for Yeri Han though as she may be the one most likely to sneak in there against the others. This is a race that is just going to keep building and building though. Early money would suggest McDormand will win again, but crazier things have happened.
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr (One Night in Miami)
Sacha Baron Cohen ( The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Another that has the majority locked in well in advance. I find it hard to see any of the first three not getting their nominations with Tucci and Strathairn fighting it out with a few others to get in. Tucci may be a bit left field, but I adored Supernova and his performance worked so well that it did deserve a nomination. I feel Kaluuya will get this one and from what I have read, is a firm favourite to do so.
Best Supporting Actress
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Dominque Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
As open as they come in the acting categories and it always has been with supporting actress. Colman and Youn have to be confidentally picked for nominations here, with a multitude of others filling in the gaps around them. Thanks to Judas and the Black Messiah’s push Fishback looks like she will get in there and with Bakalova’s brave performance she is settling herself up nicely to get nominated. Foster is actually my outside pick here, I feel she is a safe choice for voters and that will edge her in. As long as Glenn Close isn’t nominated we are all good (no offense to her of course, it just wasn’t a good role or film).
Best Original Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Minari
Mank
A very tough choice between Mank and Judas and the Black Messiah, I just feel the Academy will vote to nominate Mank as it is the film they know and love so much. As usual, would love to be wrong! The rest seem to be a safe bet with little likelihood of changes though watch out for The Forty-Year-Old Version in place of Sound of Metal.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
First Cow
A little surprise pick for First Cow here, but the other four mostly slot themselves in here due to how many nominations they have been receiving. There could be a surprise or two, but the one most likely to drop out from this list is sadly First Cow. We will see though!
Best Animated Feature
Soul
Onward
The Croods: A New Age
Over the Moon
Truthfully, this has always been a two horse race between Soul and Wolfwalkers. I have the hope that Wolfwalkers will get in ahead as I feel it is simply the better film and echoes animation at its best. But, ya know Disney. The other three slot themselves in nicely without any being to spectactular. Sadly no Studio Ghibli as I haven’t heard enough about the Earwig and the Witch to get it into the five.
Best Production Design
Mank
Mulan
Tenet
The Trail of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
In theory there shouldn’t be too many surprises here with these five continually popping up around the place. All are worthy inclusion, though do not be surprised to see one or two snubbed for films like Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah and On the Rocks. I feel though that these five are the strongest with Mank and Mulan probably in the lead to take the overall win.
Best Cinematography
Nomadland
Mank
The Trail of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Judas and the Black Messiah
While The Trail of the Chicago 7 was not the best directed film, it did have great cinematography and looked wonderful, anytime we ventured out into the park for the flashbacks opened the film up from its tight courtroom setting. Another with the majority well set in advance (kind of boring) though as Variety have said, look out for I’m Thinking of Ending Things and Łukasz Żal to sneak in here in place of someone.
Best Costume Design
Emma
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
No real surprises here, especially with Emma (costume dramas such as it must surely stop getting nominated as surely they are reusing the same dresses and suits etc? I jest of course, but a costume drama had to be in there) Mank or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom are probably favourites here, though Mulan could be a very good dark horse, so keep an eye out on this one, it is one of the few that is quite open still.
Best Film Editing
Sound of Metal
The Trail of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami
The Father
Nomadland
Personally this is a The Trail of the Chicago 7 and Sound of Metal fight for the winner. Chicago 7 works purely thanks to its editing and would be a far worse film for it. Whereas Sound of Metal is alive as a film. Potentially The Father could miss out here, though I wish it doesn’t as it is so strong with its editing that it deserves its nomination.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Birds of Prey
Pinocchio
Mank
Give it to Pinocchio for the fun times folks! Truthfully Emma could sneak into this category easily, though I imagine it will stay fairly unchanged here with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom potentially getting the win. It is my pick thus far. Though, don’t discount Mank here either.
Best Sound
Sound of Metal
Mank
The Trail of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
News of the World
Another where I cannot see too many surprises here, with maybe one or two getting taken out. If Sound of Metal isn’t in there, then something is seriously wrong. Tenet should get in and I would hazard a guess that it would be for The Trail of the Chicago 7.
Best Visual Effects
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Tenet
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
With the lack of Blockbusters this year, this has really opened up this category and has allowed a few films that normally wouldn’t get in to peak their heads through the curtain. The Midnight Sky, Tenet and Mulan feel like dead certs to get nominated, but I have gone for Mank and The One and Only Ivan to help fill out those slots as they seem most like the films that the voters would pick from the list.
Best Original Score
Soul
News of the World
The Midnight Sky
Mank
Soul has been one of the frontrunners for this for a good while and it seems likely it will stay that way. Blizzard of Souls surprised (although the score is admittedly great) by getting into the shortlist, so it should be a fairly safe bet to make it all the way to the nominee’s.
Best Original Song
Speak Now – One Night in Miami
Rain Song – Minari
Fight For You – Judas and the Black Messiah
Io Si – The Life Ahead
Húsavík – Eurovision Song Contest
As open a race as there is here with some standout songs and a tough one probably to get 100% right. I have gone for a wide range, yet pretty safe pick, with Húsavík getting a lot of love at the minute, but with some big hitters and the truly exceptional Speak Now there, this will be a tough one to get right.
Best Documentary Feature
Time
Dick Johnson Is Dead
Collective
Welcome to Chechnya
It seems like Notturno will be one of the big ones to miss out here, but also a lot of others could. Dick Johnson is Dead could seriously miss out, which perhaps seemed inconceivable months ago. We have stuck with it and Time to make it through though. The Painter and the Thief is our pick to win, but again, it may not even get close to nomination. An open field that few will get completely correct.
Best International Feature
La Llorona
Quo Vadis Aida?
Two of Us
A Sun
Another Round has dominated since awards season has started and it is hard pressed to see anything take over it, so it is the easiest of picks. Shudders La Llorona is the little one that could here and seems likely to get in. Collective could miss out due to being in the documentary category as well, so the split voting could hurt it here. Another open field, and usually with this category it does tend to provide a few shocks.
Best Animated Short
If Anything Happens I Love You
The Snail and the Whale
Out
Burrow
Kapaemahu
A hard one to pick out as If Anything Happens I Love You is just so sensational. There are a few that could surprise though, with The Snail and the Whale making a good surge and with a star voice cast, it has a good chance. Disney are going to push theirs as they are easily accessible (something that is often forgotten about how films get chosen) This is a category that has a few films that could switch in and out.
Best Live-Action Short
The Letter Room
The Kicksled Choir
Two Distant Strangers
Da Yie
A three horse race guarantees fewer surprises in this category, with The Human Voice, The Letter Room and Two Distant Strangers being the most likely to be nominated, anything else is open, Da Yie is riveting and has a solid chance of getting in, with The Kicksled Choir being the possible surprise entry.
Best Documentary Short
Hysterical Girl
What Would Sophia Loren Do
A Concerto Is a Conversation
A Love Song for Latasha
Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa
A Netflix heavy shortlist could very well spell disaster for some of their choices, but that will not be until awards night, they should all get through with two other strong pieces in A Concerto is a Conversation and Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa rounding up the stacked category. Though as we said that all Netflix films should get in, we have actually left out The Speed Cubers in place of Hysterical Girl as its doc is just that good.
That is all from us today, what films do you think will get in or miss out? Let us know! Until Monday, where we will share our reactions and see how well we did.
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